Olusegun Adeniyi
During a brief meeting between father and son, the late President John Kennedy reportedly asked: “Dad, can you lend me some money?” Seeing the look of disapproval from his father to what had evidently become incessant demand, Kennedy was said to have added: “Don’t worry dad, this time I will pay back.” The late ambassador Joe Kennedy (Sr) laughed and said to his son occupying the White House: “That will be the day!” What I took from the story is that U.S. constitutional constraints and the strength of their institutions, limit what a United States President can do, even for himself when confronted with personal challenges.
We may argue that American public officials, no matter how highly placed, cannot shun accountability without consequences, but many of the assumptions that people around the world have about their democracy have been shattered in recent years. But first, let me congratulate President Donald Trump whose rise, fall and rise (again) is beyond remarkable. Following his defeat in 2020, many publications wrote his political obituary and perhaps only a few incurable optimists believed at the time that Trump would ever return to the White House. He was dragged before many courts. His mug shot was taken like any common felon even before he was eventually convicted. At some point, Trump was also ostracised by social media mogul. Twitter (now X) was the first to de-platform him (ironically, the new owner, Elon Musk became his biggest supporter and financer in this election) before Facebook, Snapchat, Instagram and Twitch followed and YouTube removed many of his videos. To cap it all, Parler, the app where most of his supporters were then camped, was yanked off by Amazon Web Services (AWS). Despite all these, Trump took the Republican ticket with ease and has now won the election with larger margins than he did the last time.
In the months and years ahead, there will be books (and movies) not only on how Trump rebuilt the Republic Party in his own image to become an electoral winning machine but also on how he has exploited the weaknesses in the Democratic Party whose majority in American politics was once considered unassailable. Interestingly, last November, John B. Judis and Ruy Teixeira released “one of the most influential political books of the 21st century”, according to New York Times but the lessons were ignored. Titled, ‘Where Have the Democrats Gone? The Soul of the Party in the Age of Extremes’, the authors revealed how the party has alienated its critical constituencies: the industrial working class, the small towns, the newly immigrated, the Christian community etc. The authors—who in 2002 wrote ‘The Emerging Democratic Majority’—also argue that the party has been hijacked by shadowy interests that now call the shots with their Woke agenda. “Controversial views on social issues had begun to surface during Obama’s second term—not so much in Washington, but on college campuses and social media and in the foundations, publications, and groups that were aligned with the Democratic Party,” they wrote. In her review of the book last December, Jessica T. Mathews, an American international affairs expert, wrote that the issues driving most Democratic voters away include “trade policies that led to factory closures; spending bills that seemed to primarily benefit the poor at the price of higher taxes; immigration; and cultural issues such as abortion, guns, and furores over sexual identity.”
The issue of sexual identity is indeed the deal-breaker for some Democrats. There was a hint of that in the social media post by Kamaru Usman (globally renowned as a Nigerian-American professional mixed martial artist) on Tuesday. Born in Auchi, Edo State to a retired Major in the Nigerian army, Kamaru emigrated with his parents to the United States at age eight. This was the message posted on his X (formerly Twitter) platform with a photo of himself and Trump on election day: “Growing up Democrat and starting to understand the state of politics over the last few decades I know how I want to live and how to raise my family.” Trump responded to the message, viewed by more than 30 million people: “A great honor, from a great fighter. Thank you!”
Since most Americans vote for different reasons, as it should be, Kamaru was only expressing the kind of sentiment that swayed some people against the Democratic Party. The idea that your child can go to school a son and return as daughter, leaving you helpless, is a sore point for this category of voters. But there are other concerns. As Teixeira and Judis wrote in their book, the party has alienated those who see its leadership as supporting “strict gun control” in a country where many love their guns, opposing “measures that might reduce illegal immigration” at a period when nationalism is rising not to mention its “insistence on eliminating fossil fuels” which is taking away jobs, especially from rural America. The situation was not helped by how Vice President Kamala Harris appeared quite unprepared for the office to which she aspired, perhaps due to the way she emerged the presidential candidate in the first place.
Now that Trump is returning to the White House, what should Americans and the world expect? Eight years ago, I was in the United States in the days preceding his first election in November 2016, for a ‘Fellows Alumni Reunion Conference’ of the Harvard University Weatherhead Centre for International Affairs with the theme, “Confronting New Realities in an Uncertain World”. At that period, there was a great deal of apprehension about what could happen should Trump win. I recall Prof. Joseph Nye prefacing his dinner speech with a report in New York Times of that day that Hillary Clinton had 83 percent chance of winning: “That is 5/6 but who is going to feel comfortable if, like Russia Roulette, they put a gun to your head and say you have 1/6 possibility of your head being blown off?”, the former American Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs asked.
As it turned out, most of the fears about what Trump would do as president turned out to be misplaced. But if democracy is about healthy debate, respectful discourse and freedom of choice, Trump remains a threat to the American brand. In June 2020 while Trump was campaigning for re-election which he eventually lost, Wendy R. Sherman, a Harvard Kennedy School professor and former American undersecretary of State for political affairs (2011-15) wrote on the shrinking “moral authority of America”. This assigned role, according to Sherman, who led U.S. negotiations on the Iran nuclear deal, include “calling out human rights abuses, engaging with the world and the institutions of the world to be better; to fight for democratic values, to welcome people fleeing torture and death…to help ensure a better, more just world.”
The interesting thing is that Trump really does not care much about the rest of the world. Since he came on the scene a decade ago, he has shown clearly that he has little or no interest outside the United States which means that playing the role of a global cop is not for him. In his interview with New York Times before the 2016 election which he eventually won, his view was sought about Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s order to detain thousands of Turkish citizens. Asked whether he would press Erdogan “to make sure the rule of law applies,” Trump responded: “When it comes to civil liberties, our country has a lot of problems, and I think it’s very hard for us to get involved in other countries when we don’t know what we are doing, and we can’t see straight in our own country.”
It is safe to conclude that Trump will have no time sermonising about civility, rule of law etc. anywhere there are elections in other countries. We saw during this election cycle and the two previous ones he participated in, that Trump was expecting nothing short of victory. Any other outcome would have been because he was ‘rigged out’. Meanwhile, throughout this campaign, as he did for most of his presidency, nobody was too high or low to demonise. He ‘elevated’ his main opponent and Democratic Party candidate from being ‘phony Kamala’ to ‘Radical Left Lunatic’ and he never forgot to throw jabs at others, including ‘Sleepy Creepy Joe’ (Biden), ‘Nasty Nancy’ (Pelosi), ‘Crooked Hillary’ (Clinton), ‘Foul Mouthed (Ilhan) Omar’, ‘Crazy Arnold’ (Schwarzenegger), ‘Brainbird’ Nikki Haley, Gavin ‘Newscum’ Newsom, even though he had ‘Lying Ted’ (Cruz) on his side this time.
He may have contested for, and won a democratic election, Trump uses the template of autocrats. But this ‘end justifies the means’ approach to politics has twice been validated by American voters so who are we to query him? The problem, however, is that in words and deeds, he has jeopardized the ‘moral authority’ that has for decades factored Washington into the calculation of principal actors at every election cycle in numerous countries, most especially in Africa. In the world in which we live, I don’t know whether that is good or bad.
As stated earlier, it is remarkable that Trump is going back to the White House despite everything that has happened in the last four years. But in his piece, ‘We Are, Officially, Doing This Again’, respected American political writer, Jim Newell wrote yesterday that Trump’s victory came as no surprise because “incumbent party had never won in an instance where so many Americans felt things were on the wrong track, and didn’t this time, either.” Democrats, according to Newell, tried for eight years to argue that Trump is a danger to the country and its democracy. “The case was made. And the voters who decided this election either didn’t buy it or concluded that it was worth the risk. Now we all get to find out together.”
No doubt, interesting days are ahead for the United States. And the rest of the world.
